RFID Forecasts Players and Opportunities

This report is the summation of extensive research including interviews with RFID adopters and solution providers in the various applicational RFID markets, giving an unprecedented level of insight into the total RFID industry and what is really happening.

Purchasers receive an electronic PDF and (optional) printed copy of this report, a separate functional spreadsheet of the forecasts, and access to report updates throughout the year.

In 2009 the value of the entire RFID market will be $5.56 billion, up from $5.25 billion in 2008. This includes tags, readers and software/services for RFID cards, labels, fobs and all other form factors. By far the biggest segment of this is RFID cards, and $2.57 billion of the total $5.56 billion being spent on all other forms of RFID - from RFID labels to active tags.

The tagging of pallets and cases as demanded by retailers (mostly in the US) will use approximately 225 million RFID labels in 2009, but we see take off in retail outside mandates, such as from Marks & Spencer and American Apparel, where 200 million tags will be used on apparel in 2009. RFID in the form of tickets used for transit will demand 350 million tags in 2009. The tagging of animals (such as pigs and sheep) is now substantial as it becomes a legal requirement in many more territories, with 105 million tags being used for this sector in 2009. This is happening in regions such as China and Australasia. In total, 2.35 billion tags will be sold in 2009 versus 1.97 billion in 2008.

This comprehensive report from IDTechEx gives the complete picture with detailed forecasts at a price unmatched by others.

Full analysis by each market is given in great detail including in-depth historic data. Over 200 companies are profiled in this report. We give detailed ten year forecasts of the volumes of tags required, their value and the total market value for the following market segments:

Passive RFID
Drugs
Other Healthcare
Retail apparel
Consumer goods
Tires
Postal
Books
Manufacturing parts, tools
Archiving (documents/samples)
Military
Retail CPG Pallet/case
Smart cards/payment key fobs
Smart tickets
Air baggage
Conveyances/Rollcages/ULD/Totes
Animals
Vehicles
People (excluding other sectors)
Passport page/secure documents
Other tag applications

Active RFID / battery-assisted
Pharma/Healthcare
Cold retail supply chain
Consumer goods
Postal
Manufacturing parts, tools
Archiving (samples)
Military
Retail CPG Pallet/case
Shelf Edge Labels
Conveyances/Rollcages/ULD/Totes
Vehicles
People (excluding other sectors)
Car clickers
Other tag applications

Market analysis by a huge number of parameters
Using new, unique information researched globally by IDTechEx technical experts, we analyse the RFID market in many different ways, with over 180 tables and figures. They include detailed ten year projections for EPC vs non-EPC, high value niche markets, active vs passive, readers, standards, markets by frequency, markets by geographical region, label vs non label, chip vs chipless, markets by application, tag format and tag location. Cumulative sales of RFID are analyzed as are the major players and unmet opportunities. It covers the emergence of new products, legal and demand pressures and impediments for the years to come.

Which sectors are booming and which are under performing? This report examines each sector in turn. Those doing well in numbers sold are sometimes much less impressive in dollars taken and vice versa.

Highly profitable 'niche' markets analysed
Major players now and in the future in the various parts of the value chain are identified and the big orders and milestones now and in the future are analysed. Of course, not everyone will want to serve the severely price constrained, highest volume markets. For them, we examine many niches of at least one billion dollars potential that are emerging and many smaller opportunities where there is even less competition. They include:

Passports in the face of new terrorism resulting in new laws
Livestock and food traceability in the face of new laws, bioterrorism, avian flu, BSE, fraud with subsidies etc.
Intermodal containers (Smart and Secure Tradelanes and other initiatives)
Healthcare
Those in prison and on parole
Ubiquitous Sensor Networks (USN), for warning of natural disasters, military and other purposes

Our forecasts have taken into account the global economic slow down. Looking at the range of applications, the biggest projects, which tend to be government led and are usually profitable for suppliers involved, are unlikely to reverse. For example, governments will not stop tagging passports or cattle to save money. Governments do not need a fast return on investment. In industry, RFID is being applied where it can demonstrate a fairly rapid return on investment. We expect the smaller funds available to companies will result in some projects being delayed, but some companies will use this to their advantage and adopt RFID where the paybacks are compelling for competitive advantage and to increase sales.

Table of Contents:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. Definitions
1.1.1. RFID
1.1.2. Chipless/printed RFID
1.1.3. Passive and active RFID
1.2. Tags have different shapes
1.3. The RFID value chain
1.4. Where tags are placed
1.5. The show so far - 1945 to 2008
1.5.1. Cumulative sales by applicational category
1.5.2. Cumulative sales active vs passive
1.5.3. Cumulative sales chip vs chipless
1.5.4. Dominant RFID chip suppliers
1.6. Historic RFID tag sales 2005 to 2007
1.6.1. Progress in 2005
1.6.2. Progress in 2006
1.6.3. Progress in 2007
1.7. Ultimate potential
1.7.1. Potential for different applications
1.7.2. Tag price sensitivity at highest volumes
1.7.3. Price sensitivity curve for RFID (adoption curve)
1.8. Legal push
1.9. Demand pull
1.10. Constraints on market growth
1.10.1. Impediments to highest volume RFID
2. MARKET BY SPECIFICATION AND EPC RFID
2.1. League table of RFID specifications
2.2. EPCglobal
2.3. Progress with EPC adoption so far
2.4. Forecasting EPC adoption
2.5. Choice of tagging package or product
2.6. EPC successes
2.7. EPC versus Non EPC
3. MARKETS BY COUNTRY
3.1. Number of RFID projects by country
3.2. Ongoing importance of the US market
3.3. RFID across four continents
3.4. Projected sales of RFID tags by territory
3.5. Increasing importance of the East Asian market
3.5.1. A view of the RFID market size in Thailand from the Thailand Forum.
4. MARKETS FOR PASSIVE RFID
4.1. Passive vs active
4.2. Sub categories of passive tag
4.3. Project cost, size and payback
4.4. Passive market by applicational sector
4.5. The main things that are passive tagged
4.6. Passive RFID market by range
4.7. New passive technologies create new markets
4.7.1. Forecast for chip vs chipless/printed tags
4.7.2. Price advantage the main driver of market gain
5. MARKETS FOR ACTIVE RFID
5.1. Sub categories of active tag
5.2. Project cost, size and payback
5.3. Active market by applicational sector
5.4. The main things that are active tagged
5.5. Active RFID market by range
5.6. Active RFID market by battery type
5.7. New active technologies create new markets
5.7.1. Hand-held homing devices
5.7.2. New markets - Smart Active Labels
5EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. Definitions
1.1.1. RFID
1.1.2. Chipless/printed RFID
1.1.3. Passive and active RFID
1.2. Tags have different shapes
1.3. The RFID value chain
1.4. Where tags are placed
1.5. The show so far - 1945 to 2009
1.5.1. Cumulative sales by applicational category
1.5.2. Cumulative sales active vs passive
1.5.3. Cumulative sales chip vs chipless
1.5.4. Dominant RFID chip suppliers
1.6. Historic RFID tag sales 2005 to 2008
1.6.1. Progress in 2005
1.6.2. Progress in 2006
1.6.3. Progress in 2007
1.6.4. Progress in 2008
1.7. Ultimate potential
1.7.1. Potential for different applications
1.7.2. Tag price sensitivity at highest volumes
1.7.3. Price sensitivity curve for RFID (adoption curve)
1.8. Legal push
1.9. Demand pull
1.10. Constraints on market growth
1.10.2. Impediments to highest volume RFID
2. MARKET BY SPECIFICATION AND EPC RFID
2.1. League table of RFID specifications
2.2. EPCglobal
2.3. Progress with EPC adoption so far
2.4. Forecasting EPC adoption
2.5. Choice of tagging package or product
2.6. EPC successes
2.7. EPC versus Non EPC
2.8. Near Field Communication (NFC)
3. MARKETS BY COUNTRY
3.1. Number of RFID projects by country
3.2. Ongoing importance of the US market
3.3. RFID across four continents
3.4. Projected sales of RFID tags by territory
3.5. Increasing importance of the East Asian market
4. MARKETS FOR PASSIVE RFID
4.1. Passive vs active
4.2. Sub categories of passive tag
4.3. Project cost, size and payback
4.4. Passive market by applicational sector
4.5. The main things that are passive tagged
4.6. Passive RFID market by range
4.7. RFID technologies by range and cost
4.8. New passive technologies create new markets
4.8.1. Forecast for chip vs chipless/printed tags
4.8.2. Latest progress with printed RFID
4.8.3. Price advantage the main driver of market gain
5. MARKETS FOR ACTIVE RFID
5.1. Sub categories of active tag
5.2. Project cost, size and payback
5.3. Active market by applicational sector
5.4. The main things that are active tagged
5.5. Active RFID market by range
5.6. Active RFID market by battery type
5.6.1. Energy Harvesting and RFID
5.7. New active technologies create new markets
5.7.1. Hand-held homing devices
5.7.2. New markets - Smart Active Labels
5.7.3. An example of massive 'niches'
5.8. Technologies facilitating growth
5.9. Forecasts for active RFID tags
5.10. Forecasts for systems
5.10.1. The spend on active RFID systems
5.10.2. Active RFID players
6. MARKET FOR RFID INTERROGATORS
6.1. Overview
6.2. Interrogator numbers
6.3. Interrogator price
6.4. Interrogator market value
7. MARKETS BY FREQUENCY
7.1. Spread of tag sales
7.2. Passive frequencies
7.2.1. Segmenting of the passive UHF market
7.3. Active frequencies
8. MARKET VALUE BY POSITION IN VALUE CHAIN: INTERROGATORS, SOFTWARE, SERVICES ETC
8.1. Market split by position
8.2. Markets for labels, cards and tickets
8.3. Forecasts by tag structures
8.4. NFC, smart card and ticket projections
8.5. Markets by location of tag - item, pallet/case, etc
8.5.1. Item, pallet/case tagging vs smart cards
8.6. Forecasts 2009-2019
8.6.2. Rationale behind each forecast
8.6.3. Ubiquitous Sensor Networks and other possibilities - Malaysia and Korea timelines to 2010
9. MARKET BY APPLICATIONAL SECTOR
9.1. Prevalence of RFID projects for each applicational sector
9.2. Future trend of projects for each applicational sector
9.3. Market size of tags by applicational category
9.4. Current and future forms of payback by applicational sector
9.5. Healthcare and pharmaceuticals
9.6. Postal and courier services
9.7. Retail and Consumer Packaged Goods
9.8. Military and federal
9.9. Airlines and Airports
9.10. Libraries
9.11. Secure access
9.12. Laundry/ rented textiles
9.12.1. State of the art
9.12.2. Payback
9.12.3. Technical requirements and trends
9.12.4. Contrast in store apparel tagging
9.12.5. Laundry tag suppliers
9.12.6. Addressable market
9.12.7. Forecasts
10. LARGEST ORDERS, PRODUCTS, PLAYERS AND OVERSUPPLY/ UNDERSUPPLY: MILESTONES IN FUTURE
10.1. Dynamics of the RFID value chain
10.2. Largest orders, best selling products, dominant suppliers in future
10.2.1. Largest suppliers of chips
10.2.2. Largest suppliers of tags, inlets, straps and detailed value chain for high volume
10.2.3. Largest suppliers of software and services
10.3. Sectors potentially oversupplied or undersupplied
10.3.1. Production capacity for tags
10.3.2. Over and undersupply along the value chain 2009-2019
10.4. Milestones and timelines 2007-2020
10.4.1. Milestones 2007-2020
APPENDIX 1: RFID SOLUTION PROVIDERS
APPENDIX 2: EPCGLOBAL AND THE INTERNET OF THINGS
APPENDIX 3: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS
APPENDIX 4: GLOSSARY
TABLES
1.1. Largest suppliers to date
1.2. Where RFID tags are placed - categories used
1.3. Cumulative global sales of RFID tags by applicational category by the end of 2008 in millions
1.4. The cumulative global sales of RFID tags active vs passive in millions
1.5. Cumulative global sales of RFID tags chip vs chipless to end of 2008 in millions
1.6. Deliveries of chipless/printed tags to date by company
1.7. The dominant RFID tag and chip suppliers to start of 2009
1.8. Value of RFID passive tag market in 2005
1.9. Value of RFID active tag market in 2005
1.10. Value of RFID passive tag market in 2006
1.11. Value of RFID active tag market in 2006
1.12. Value Chain 2006
1.13. Value of RFID passive tag market in 2007
1.14. Value of RFID active tag market in 2007
1.15. Value Chain 2007
1.16. Value of RFID passive tag market in 2008
1.17. Value of RFID active tag market in 2008
1.18. Value Chain 2008
1.19. Ultimate potential annual global sales of some of the most promising tagged things that have potential for up to one billion tags used yearly.
1.20. Ultimate potential annual global sales for some of the most promising tagged things with potential of over one billion tags yearly.
1.21. Examples of laws and mandates encouraging RFID
1.22. Costs per annum for barcodes
1.23. The main impediments to highest volume RFID
2.1. The pecking order of RFID specifications by RFID tag expenditure in 2009
2.2. Reasons why an organization may want to use EPC
2.3. Reasons why an organization may wish not to use EPC
2.4. When industries may adopt EPC RFID in at least hundreds of millions yearly. Estimates by IDTechEx
2.5. Market for EPC related RFID only - tags, readers, middleware, services etc, in US dollars billions
2.6. Comparison of NFC enabled devices and contactless smart cards.
3.1. Largest number of RFID case studies by application and continent
3.2. Largest number of RFID case studies by tag format and continent
3.3. Largest number of RFID case studies by tag location and continent
3.4. Largest number of RFID case studies by frequency and continent
3.5. Number of tags in billions by territory 2009, 2014, 2019
3.6. Percentage share of numbers of tags by territory 2009, 2014, 2019
3.7. Value, in billions of dollars, of systems/ services/ tags by territory 2009, 2014, 2019
3.8. Percentage share of value of systems/ services/ tags by territory 2009, 2014, 2019
3.9. Leading markets by country for RFID in billions of dollars, systems including tags
3.10. Value $ billions of total RFID market excluding cards 2009, 2014, 2019
3.11. Percentage value $ billions of total RFID market excluding cards 2009, 2014, 2019
4.1. Global market for active vs passive RFID tags by number billions
4.2. Global market for active vs passive RFID tags by average tag price in cents
4.3. Global market for active vs passive RFID tags in billions of dollars
4.4. Projected tag assembly costs according to The Auto ID Center
4.5. Historical sales of chipless RFID tags
4.6. Chipless percentage share of the overall RFID market by numbers 2009 to 2019. Projection by IDTechEx
4.7. Chipless share of the overall RFID market by numbers 2009 to 2019. Projection by IDTechEx
5.1. Comparison of some of the typical features of passive vs active RFID
5.2. Unit price of expensive vs low cost tags for active RFID 2008
5.3. Examples of overall spend vs tag spend for some large RFID projects so far
5.4. Main things tagged with active RFID tags in terms of number of projects in the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase or numbers used
5.5. Active RFID in the prison and parole service
5.6. Global potential annually for active RFID systems plus tags in the prison and parole service
5.7. Number (in millions) of active tags by application 2009-2019
5.8. Average active tag price per application in US cents 2009-2019
5.9. Value of active tags by application 2009-2019 (US Dollar Millions)
5.10. Forecast for the value of global sales of RFID systems excluding tags, for vehicle clickers, SALs and other applications 2009-2019 in millions of dollars
5.11. Forecast for the value of global sales of RFID systems including tags, for vehicle clickers, SALs and other applications 2009-2019 in millions of dollars
5.12. Sectors, locations and application examples of Active RFID players


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